Forecast-based financing for disaster risk reduction in Uganda, Niger, Togo and Mozambique

Partner (s): German Red Cross (GRC), Google, GiveDirectly, International Federation of Red Cross, UN OCHA, and National Institute of Disaster Management (INGD).

Type of Organization: Non-governmental organizations

Country of Operation: Uganda, Niger, Togo and Mozambique

Climate Adaptation Sector Thematic Area: Leveraging Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Activities

At the onset of climate disasters, disaster risk responses are often delayed due to a lack of available finance and poorly planned response measures. Forecast- based Financing (FbF) is a model that seeks to pre-emptively overcome these barriers by working with communities at- risk, meteorological services, agencies specialized in disaster risk reduction and other relevant national actors, to agree on a set of priority responses, and the necessary budget, that would be initiated prior to the onset of a disaster, when the disaster- forecast reaches a certain trigger ‘threshold’. In essence, FbF releases humanitarian funding for planned activities based on forecast information which reduces risks, enhances preparedness, and makes disaster risk management more effective.

By determining a set of Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) and a realistic, accompanying budget, the roles and responsibilities of departments within the national societies as well as national, regional and local focal points are agreed and decided on ahead of time and implemented in accordance with disaster risk forecasting. In the various Red Cross Society FbF pilot countries – Uganda, Togo and Niger – these SOP were pre-tested and validated by local stakeholders to ensure that the response measures were aligned with community needs and interests. In addition, through Google’s Flood Forecasting Initiative, vulnerable communities in Mozambique are being assisted through FbF pilots where historical flood data has been analysed to identify communities most at-risk of flooding. This triggered the transfer of mobile money to vulnerable communities three days ahead of Cyclone Freddy in March 2023.

This project has been supported by the German government through the German Red Cross (GRC), as well as Google and GiveDirectly through partnerships with organisations such as the International Federation of Red Cross and UN OCHA. Key contributors include the Red Cross Society national offices who work closely with national, regional and local focal points to ensure the standard response measures and funding are in line with the needs of the local communities. Communities are also engaged with and included in disaster risk response planning. In Mozambique, the non-profit organisation, GiveDirectly, Google and the National Institute of Disaster Management (INGD) worked together with vulnerable communities in the Nhamatanda District to help set up mobile money accounts for the delivery of cash transfers in case of severe flooding.

Impact

In Uganda, the Red Cross Society undertook a FbF pilot in four villages with over 2000 people at risk of severe flooding. A 24-hour response period was decided on, giving national societies enough time to warn communities and prepare ahead of severe flooding. In the floods that occurred in November 2015 and April 2016, disaster relief funds were transferred to communities within 24 hours and relief items, including food, were dispersed to 367 affected families prior to the onset of the floods.

In Niger, the Red Cross Society trailed FbF to provide drought relief assistance to 2000 households within the Zinder region. Early warning drought forecasts, monitored by the European Centre for Weather Forecasts, resulted in the distribution of millet and cowpea seeds three months ahead of an anticipated drought during the trial period. During the second phase of the trial, predictions of low-rainfall for the following years harvest enabled the release of funds to affected communities allowing them to buy food well ahead of the onset of drought.

In Togo, the Red Cross Society undertook a trial in 15 villages to forecast anticipated flooding from the Nangbeto Dam on the Mono River. Rainfall and river levels were monitored by volunteers, enabling the preparation of evacuation sites and relief supplies such as water storage containers, food, soap and water purification tablets. In 2016, radio alerts of anticipated flooding allowed dam operated to release water early to limit the flooding and resulted in the transfer of emergency funds to affected communities, and the distribution of relief supplies to evacuation sites. Communities were thus well prepared ahead of time when the flooding did arrive.

In Mozambique, in March 2023, GiveDirectly and Google implemented a pilot in the Nhamatanda District to send mobile money cash transfers to vulnerable communities at risk of severe flooding. SIM cards were distributed to community members who needed them and were assisted in registering their accounts. This enabled 4183 people to receive US$225 via M-PESA several days ahead of Cyclone Freddy. Communities were thus able to buy the necessary essentials such as food and clothing which they lost due to the severe floods.

Focus on the Most Vulnerable:

The FbF pilot projects had a strong focus on safeguarding the most vulnerable communities against the onset of climate disasters. This includes rural and poor households who are highly exposed to climate change. In the FbF pilots in Uganda, Niger and Togo, vulnerable communities were key stakeholders involved in the preparation of response planning. In Mozambique, community meetings were held to assist community members in setting up mobile money accounts, and to educate them about the project.

Scale-Up Pathways:

FbF can be used as a disaster risk response Strategy, in addition to traditional disaster risk planning (it is not meant to replace traditional methods but rather adds an additional layer of security on top of pre-existing disaster risk reduction strategies). Currently national Red Cross Societies operate in 15 communities in Africa, the Americas and Asia-Pacific, where they are implementing FbF pilot projects. Lessons from implementation in these pilot countries can be used as a framework for scaling up FbF in the IGAD region.

Google’s flood forecasts are now available in 80 countries, providing flood forecasting up to seven days in advance of a flood to 460 million people. Africa has a high presence of mobile money among low-income earners and poor communities, many of which are at high risk due to climate change. There is thus high potential to implement similar projects as that of the pilot project implemented in Mozambique by GiveDirectly and Google.

Further information
For further information on the Red Cross initiatives, please find resource 1 and resource 2, or contact climatecentre@clmatecentre.org.
For further information on the Google/ Give Directly initiative https://www.givedirectly.org